Unsettled Pattern Continues
We had a few rounds of strong storms move through the Tennessee Valley this morning. More light to moderate rain falls just to our west in Mississippi. This lifts north and east providing mainly light rain and a few thunderstorms later this afternoon. We’ll hopeful what storms do form stay below severe limits this afternoon. The atmosphere will likely have a tough time recovering especially if the rain from Mississippi moves overhead through lunch time.
Moisture from N. Mississippi Moves Northeast
Here is the latest model run showing rain this afternoon coming from the west. Another .25″ to .50″ is possible today. The best chance of severe storms stay west and south of the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. That changes Tuesday into Wednesday as another impulse and cold front approach the area.
The first two show the moisture from Mississippi lifting north and east. By late this afternoon, the atmosphere will hopefully be “tapped out” and the best chance of severe weather stays away. The heavier storms in western Mississippi could be a player in our forecast early Tuesday morning.
Here is the forecast map on Tuesday morning. It shows another disturbance and cold front moving closer to the Tennessee Valley. Rain chances stay elevated with the potential for damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, and small hail. We are under a slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday. Wednesday will be a stormy day as well as the system remains across the area.