There’s a sharp line between the rainfall “haves” and the “have-nots” this morning, and that’s going to make things interesting again this afternoon.
Over two inches of rain fell in Southern Tennessee and a part of North Alabama this morning setting up a boundary between rain-cooled air to the northeast and steamy, unstable air to the south and west:
This boundary exists to the northwest as well, and a line of intense thunderstorms is already moving along it. A 64 MPH wind gust occurred at Joplin, Missouri earlier, and the Storm Prediction Center has posted a MODERATE RISK of severe weather primarily for the high wind threat west of the Tennessee Valley today:
The HRRR model did a decent job with last night’s and this morning’s storms, so we’ll be watching how it progresses this band of storms today. This is how it looks through the evening as of now; this is a model, so it will have some margin of error in timing and exact placement. It’s just a rough guideline:
The main threat with storms this evening will be strong winds (over 50 MPH), hail, and more very heavy rain. Two waves of heavy rain in one day could produce some significant flash flooding.
We’ll be watching it! Stay in touch through this afternoon and evening: