Tuesday’s Thunderstorm Threat

Posted on: 2:35 am, April 29, 2014, by , updated on: 01:09pm, April 29, 2014

Updated: 1:07 PM

The first Tornado Watch of the day is in Mississippi, Louisiana and far SW Alabama.  We see quiet weather for a couple of hours, then scattered strong to severe storms develop through the evening.

Tornado Watch until 9 PM

Tornado Watch until 9 PM

Updated: 12:30pm

New tornado watch will likely go up for Mississippi shortly.

 

mcd

 

Here is the latest timing on this afternoon and evening storms. This is just one model. We are thinking storms will enter the Shoals between 1pm-4pm and exit Sand/Lookout Mountains after 8pm.

 

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large part of Alabama and Mississippi in a MODERATE and SLIGHT RISK for severe weather this afternoon and evening:

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  • Slight Risk For the Tennessee Valley

  • Hail

  • Best Tornado Threat To South

  • Wind

 

The morning model data suggests (as SPC has drawn) the highest risk of severe storms and tornadoes is in Central Alabama starting after 1 PM. This is the HRRR model’s output showing the progress of expected storms from 3 PM to 7 PM. *Highest threat does not mean “NO” threat for the Tennessee Valley!* We will be on top of this through the evening:

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  • 3 PM

  • 4 PM

  • 5 PM

  • 6 PM

  • 7 PM

  • 8 PM

The Significant Tornado Parameter is highest in SOUTH ALABAMA today. This is the HRRR’s output for 6 PM. It’s high enough in North Alabama to be on alert, but it’s not going to be quite as bad as yesterday:

hrrrGC_con_stp_010

-Jason
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