Heavy storms near the Gulf Coast may be reducing the amount of “return flow” we are getting right now; that’s delaying the onset of strong thunderstorm development in Mississippi and Alabama. The highest potential for severe weather today and tonight is south of US 72; however, there is a risk of a few strong storms even into Southern Middle Tennessee through midnight.
The sunshine we’re getting now is helping to rapidly destabilize the atmosphere; CAPE (instability) is up in the neighborhood of 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon. Shear is low right now (2:00 PM), but it will increase with a strengthening low-level jet through the evening hours:
The latest HRRR model guidance shows thunderstorms in progress in North and Central Alabama between 6 and 8 PM; they don’t move out of Northeast Alabama until after 1-2 AM.
Strong winds, hail, and tornadoes are possible in the storms this evening and tonight. Be sure you are able to receive warning information as this could be another very fast-paced event for Alabama in particular!
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