Severe Storms This Evening/Overnight

Posted on: 3:45 am, April 28, 2014, by , updated on: 12:25pm, April 28, 2014

Update: Monday, 12:25pm

A new tornado watch will likely be issued shortly!

 

MD

 

Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center:

   AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS NERN LA…WRN/NRN MS…NWRN AL…SRN
   MIDDLE TN.

   CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 281705Z – 281900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY…TORNADO WATCH IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITHIN NEXT HOUR ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA.  SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN BKN/SW-NE
   BAND AND INTENSIFY THROUGH AFTN WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT/LONG-TRACK
   TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION…EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEFT
   OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA…BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH SWWD EXTENT AT SFC.
   MEANWHILE VIS IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING POCKETS OF RELATIVELY
   CLOUD-FREE AREAS THAT WILL FOSTER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF INSOLATION AND
   QUICK SBCINH REMOVAL.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THIS
   CORRIDOR SUGGEST 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BUILD NEWD.  IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT…TSTMS ALREADY ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN LA INVOF
   MLU…AND IF NOT ALREADY SFC-BASED…MAY BECOME SO SHORTLY.
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM NEWD ACROSS MS INTO SRN MID
   TN AND NWRN AL AS AIR MASS THERE DESTABILIZES IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
   DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EACH ARE FAVORABLE AND WILL REMAIN
   SO…WITH 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  EFFECTIVE SRH SHOULD
   INCREASE THROUGH AFTN TO AROUND 300 J/KG…AND VWP ALREADY SHOW
   300-500 J/KG OF 0-3 KM SRH OVER NERN MS.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014

Here is some of the latest guidance from our in-house model data. The two models show storms forming and moving east late this afternoon through the evening and overnight. Be aware that any storms ahead of the main line could go severe and produce tornadoes. We’ll monitor the process through the evening.

 

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Model #1

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Model #2

The latest discussion from SPC shows the atmosphere getting increasing unstable from west to east. The “energy” in the atmosphere climbs to over 1000 k/jg. With peeks of sun through the late morning and afternoon, this will likely add fuel to thunderstorms through the day. Look where I put the yellow arrow (Increasingly Unstable)

 

MD

 

 

The latest model guidance coming in still suggests a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Forecast radar from the NAM shows a line of severe storms from Nashville to The Shoals to Columbus, Miss. by 5 PM.

hires_ref_fire_11

This line progresses across Alabama and Middle Tennessee through the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.  The general idea is severe storms develop over The Shoals between 2 PM and 5 PM and move east into the Huntsville area between 5 and 8 PM; it may not make a big impact in Northeast Alabama until after 7-8 PM.  Storms may develop ahead of the main “line,” so all of us need to be on guard after 2 PM today.

Read below for additional information about today’s threat.

Updated: 8:07am

Some of the storms across extreme northwest Alabama have a chance to go severe including damaging winds and hail. The ones north and west of Tupelo are severe. These are tracking to the north and east this morning.

 

Rain2

Image Taken at 8am

This image talks about the potential for severe storms in this area.

MSC

The Storm Prediction Center has most of the Tennessee Valley under a **moderate risk** for severe weather today. The timing for wind, hail, flooding rain, and possible tornadoes still looks like around late afternoon to the west, late evening into the overnight for central areas, and around midnight and after to the east. All types of severe weather is possible with this system.

day1otlk_1300

Highest Risk: This Afternoon Through the Overnight

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  • SPC Tornado Probability

  • SPC Hail Probability

  • SPC Damaging Wind Probability

Tornado, Hail and Wind Probabilities. They are all the highest over central and western part of Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

The GFS model shows the strongest storms moving through during the evening and overnight. Stay weather aware all day and be ready to take action tonight if a tornado warning is issued.

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  • Monday Evening

  • Just After Midnight

  • Early Tuesday Morning

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