Nice For Now…Strong To Severe Storms Possible Next Week

Posted on: 11:03 am, April 23, 2014, by

Here is a shot from Monte Sano just before lunch time. It’s a beautiful day as highs reach the lower 70s this afternoon. The next chance of rain occurs Thursday night into early Friday. Only light showers are expected and the chances of getting wet for Panoply are small. The bigger question is what’s going to happen next week.

 

MonteSano

 

Now to next week:

The upper level map on Sunday afternoon has a powerful area of low pressure to our northwest. That energy moves east and will be a player in our forecast Monday/Tuesday of next week.

 

850 temperatures

 

The Storm Prediction Center has the Tennessee Valley in a slight risk for severe weather by the first of next week. You can see the green highlighted in the Day 6 outlook. The European model shows heavy storms moving through here late Monday.

 

Hydro

 

Photo Gallery Expand 1 of 3
  • Monday Evening

  • After Midnight Monday Night

  • Tuesday Morning

Bottom Line: Check back with WHNT News 19 and http://www.valleywx.com for the timing and severity of the next week’s system. It’s very early, but damaging winds are possible with the potential for isolated tornadoes. Will the severe threat stay to our west, more through here, or both? Those questions we’ll answer as we get closer to next week.

Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma:

SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY…STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE…

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH. CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENS LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
INTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY. INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KT
SHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THEN EJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.

MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX…NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS A
RESULT…SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.

LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM LA…NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLE TN. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014

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