Warm, humid air moving north from the Gulf Coast pushed temperatures up close to 70 degrees this afternoon, and showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening through the overnight hours as the atmosphere continues to destabilize. The risk of severe weather is below what would be considered even a SLIGHT RISK, but few storms could produce some brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail along with frequent lightning and rattle-you-out-of-the-bed thunder overnight. Advance the graphics below to see the hail potential and one model’s forecast radar images. It gives you an idea of how spotty the overnight storms will be. It won’t rain everywhere; this is similar to summertime afternoon storms.
These showers and storms will clear out by mid-morning Wednesday leaving us breezy and warm in the afternoon. Another wave of showers and a few isolated storms comes with another surge of warm, moist air Wednesday night. Thursday evening through early Friday morning still looks to be the prime chance for some heavier rain and storms with the potential for some severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center maintains a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorm development over the Tennessee Valley, West and Central Alabama, Middle Tennessee, and the Midsouth region for the time frame of Thursday afternoon to early Friday morning. The brighter shade of green is still a SLIGHT RISK, but it shows a 30% area where SPC forecasts the greatest risk of severe weather.
Strong, straight-line winds within a line of storms appear to be the biggest issue here, but if the line is able to break up into some bowing segments, tornadoes will be possible. We are not expecting a major tornado “outbreak,” but it’s a major deal if it affects you, and we understand that.
Our general time frame is a starting time around 6 PM in The Shoals to and ending time around 4 AM in Northeast Alabama. That window will be narrowed down some on Wednesday as we get a little better handle on the development and speed of the system; I would expect them to be sooner in the time period than later (faster rather than slower), but that will need to be adjusted as confidence increases through Wednesday.
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We’ll keep you posted!