Is Winter Over Yet?

Posted on: 8:43 pm, February 13, 2014, by

Mercy. This has been one heck of a winter so far, and it’s not over yet.

It is true that the winter weather threats and cold weather will relax for the next 10 to 14 days, but there is no guarantee that we won’t have some more “cold” weather or threats of other things. There is nothing to suggest we will have anything any worse than we have already seen; there is nothing that suggests a guarantee of more snow. It’s just a matter of the calendar, the tilt of the Earth, and the seasons of the year. You never say never when you’re dealing with the natural world and a chaotic atmosphere!

Here’s where we’re going in the short term; for specifics on the weekend and next week, see the forecast discussion at WHNT.com/Weather.

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So the rest of February has at least 10 days to two weeks’s worth of near-normal or slightly-above normal temperatures. The CFS long-range guidance isn’t so hopeful for March. It’s a model; it’s not perfect, and we only use it for general ideas about weather patterns – not specific weather events.

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  • CFS Temperature Anomaly through February 28th; this is how temperatures vary from average

  • CFS Temperature Anomaly March 1 to March 31; this is how temperatures vary from average

This temperature pattern makes sense if it has the “blocking” patterns right; the PNA (Pacific North America connection) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) have the look of more cooler or colder-than-average weather in March:

NAO forecast from the CFS and the climatological impact:

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PNA forecast from the CFS and the climatological impact:

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From the looks of the CFS and the longer-range guidance from the European model, winter backs down for a little while, but I don’t think it’s totally over yet. The look isn’t “frigid,” but it won’t be a super warm, pleasant March if this pans out.

-Jason
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