Old Man Winter Still Breathing Threats in the Guidance

You may not be ready to hear this, but Winter is not over…by a long shot. There are still whispers and “breaths of threats” from more cold and more snow in the computer guidance. Before you continue reading, understand you are not reading a long-range “forecast.” This is a look behind the curtain at the data we have in hand that helps guide where our forecast goes.

It’s true that we do have a break from the cold weather coming this weekend; it’ll get up around 60ºF on Saturday afternoon, then another cold front comes in with rain Saturday night and Sunday leaving us with a chilly north breeze on Sunday evening. Another significant front swings in on Tuesday, and there is potential for some strong and/or severe storms with that system.

Guess what happens behind that system…

Forecast temperature anomaly plot for North America - Feb. 6 to Feb. 13

Forecast temperature anomaly plot for North America – Feb. 6 to Feb. 13

Yep. Another prolonged period of cold weather. How cold will it get? It’s too soon to say.

Will it snow again? I don’t know, but it’s a possibility if you believe the guidance. Last night’s European model went bonkers with a huge snow for the Tennessee Valley. Before you look at it, understand that it’s only a model. I really don’t have any confidence that this is a real possibility; what it does show us is that while the over-all weather pattern is changing, it may not be improving much.

Don’t go tell everybody that Jason said it’s going to snow a foot. If you do, I’ll send my snoring bulldog to your house for a week.

-Jason
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