Significant Severe Weather Threat Developing Today and Tonight

Posted on: 7:57 am, December 21, 2013, by

A significant severe weather threat is developing today and tonight to our west, and it will have an impact on the Tennessee Valley, Central Alabama and Middle Tennessee. The wave of severe storms will weaken some late tonight as it moves across Interstate 65, but we all have a risk of high winds and even tornadoes tonight and early Sunday morning.

This is a serious event, but it will not impact all of us equally. We urge you to make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is on and working, and you should also have a secondary source of warning information like a mobile phone app or one of the text/call services like Baron Saf-T-Net:

WHNT.com’s Maps & Radar Page
Mobile Applications
Baron Saf-T-Net

The Storm Prediction Center has placed part of Northwest Alabama and much of Middle Tennessee in a MODERATE RISK of severe weather; the rest of us are in the SLIGHT category.

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  • Severe Weather Outlook

  • Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point

  • SPC Probability of damaging winds within 25 miles of a point

The difference in the outlooks is the probability – the chance that severe weather will occur. It’s not a guarantee for any one spot, but it is a strong possibility west of I-65 tonight and early Sunday.

The timeline is similar to last night, but there is some leeway in the start time in Northwest Alabama because the line of storms hasn’t developed yet. It’s much harder to time something that isn’t even on radar when making the forecast. Here’s the latest RPM model output from 7 PM through 5 AM:

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  • Forecast Radar at 7 PM

  • Forecast Radar at 9 PM

  • Forecast Radar at 11 PM

  • Forecast Radar at 1 AM

  • Forecast Radar at 5 am

  • Forecast Radar at 3 AM

The real timeline could be as late as 10 PM tonight to as late as 7 AM Sunday; however, we really think it will be closer to the 7 PM to 4-5 AM we’ve been talking about since last night.

Either way, be ready for overnight storms. Get your errands done today with no worry; just keep this threat in the back of your mind through the day so you’ll be ready for it tonight.

-Jason
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