Cold Rain – A Few Flakes Possible

Posted on: 3:51 am, November 25, 2013, by

It’s the start of a new week and things could get interesting as the next storm system moves in.  In the short-term, it’s chilly outside. Clouds streaming in from the southwest aren’t allowing the temperatures to drop as much this morning. We are in the upper 20s to lower 30s under a mostly cloudy sky. There are some radar returns on ARMOR, but the atmosphere is still too dry at the surface to support anything at this point.

 

temps

 

Now to the system out west. You can see rain/sleet/snow developing across Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana this morning. This system heads our way this afternoon, tonight, and Tuesday. Most of the precipitation will fall in the form of rain. However, don’t be surprised to see a few ice pellets mixing in at times this afternoon. Temperatures will remain above freezing so no travel problems are expected. If it gets a little “noisy” at times later, those are ice pellets/sleet hitting the surface. Here is a look at the storm this morning.

 

regional_sat2

 

What are our chances of seeing snow from this storm? Very small.

 

As the storm moves away Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, there could be enough cold air to change the rain briefly over to snow before ending early Wednesday morning. Most of the moisture should be gone by the time cold air arrives. With temperatures dropping below freezing Wednesday morning, there could be slick spots on overpasses/bridges along with elevated surfaces. That is something we’ll have to monitor. Here is a look at two computer models explaining the potential for a little white stuff. A quick footnote: All moisture will be gone by Thanksgiving Day, shopping Friday, and the Iron Bowl in Auburn Saturday afternoon. You can watch the game on WHNT News 19.

 

Here is the European Model valid at midnight Wednesday morning:

 

euro1

 

The blue 540 line isn’t a guarantee, but it’s a good indicator of the rain/snow line. That line is across northwest Alabama at midnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. You can still see some moisture hanging around the Tennessee Valley at this time. With this scenario, a brief period of light rain/snow is possible lasting into the wee hours of Wednesday morning before ending.

 

Here is a look at the GFS Model valid for 6am Wednesday morning:

GFS1

 

This model is even more aggressive with colder air Wednesday morning. Six hours after the previous model,  the 540 thickness blue line (rain/snow line) is along I-20/59 near Birmingham with moisture exiting the area. With this forecast, a mix of rain and snow is possible until daybreak across east Alabama. Again, no accumulation is expected. Keep checking back on www.valleywx.com for the latest chance for snow in the Tennesee Valley.

 

 

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