Heavy Rain & Wind Increase

Posted on: 11:29 am, October 31, 2013, by

So far we’ve only seen light showers across the Tennessee Valley. That changes this afternoon as heavier rain and storms press eastward. First, let’s look at the big picture. Only light rain falls across northwest Alabama and west Tennessee at 11am. Heavier rain continues in Mississippi down into Louisiana. There is a tornado watch up for portions of Louisiana, southwest Mississippi, and extreme east Texas until 2pm.

 

regional_sat

 

Let’s take a look at the GFS model. This model has a good handle on the timing and intensity of thunderstorm activity. Look at the 1pm model run below and compare that to 11am current conditions above. They are very similar.

 

GFS1

Valid at 1pm this afternoon.

Look how the timing is very close. At 11am, heavy rain falls from Memphis southwest into central Louisiana. The model shows heavy rain and storms in a similar spot. Here is some good news: the model is more intense than what’s going on right now. Not saying that will stay the same, but we’ll see what happens. Fast forward to 7pm this evening with the GFS model.

 

GFS2

Valid 7pm This Evening

Heavy rain falls in the Shoals with showers picking up in Madison, Lincoln, Morgan, and Cullman Counties. The rain is barely starting to the southeast. Here is the bottom line this evening:

  1. Heavy rain develops in the Shoals around 2pm.
  2. Rain totals 1″-2″ from now through the overnight.
  3. Wind gusts to 40 mph at the higher elevations. *Wind Advisory In Effect*
  4. Wet for Trick-or-Treating  from New Market, Huntsville, Decatur, Cullman to the west. Drier chances are higher to the east.
  5. Rain should begin after 7pm for Fort Payne, Boaz, and Winchester.
  6. Severe weather threat is LOW. Damaging winds and a brief, isolated tornado at best. Most if not all  of us just seeing heavy rain and some wind.

Here is another look at the timing of the heaviest rain to move through.

 

Rain Totals

 

Here are selected cities and their timing:

2pm-6pm: Florence, Tuscumbia, Zip City, Cherokee, Phil Campbell, Leighton, Lawrenceburg, Rogersville, Anderson, and Lexington.

6pm-9pm: Huntsville, Fayetteville, Meridianville, Decatur, Danville, Owens Crossroads, Tanner, and Athens.

9pm-1am: Fort Payne, Valley Head, Boaz, Stevenson, Hollywood, and Ider.

Keep checking back to www.valleywx.com for updates through the afternoon with Jason Simpson and Brandon Chambers.

 

 

July-Aug-Milkshake-170x65
Jack’s