Heavy Rain & Wind Increase
So far we’ve only seen light showers across the Tennessee Valley. That changes this afternoon as heavier rain and storms press eastward. First, let’s look at the big picture. Only light rain falls across northwest Alabama and west Tennessee at 11am. Heavier rain continues in Mississippi down into Louisiana. There is a tornado watch up for portions of Louisiana, southwest Mississippi, and extreme east Texas until 2pm.
Let’s take a look at the GFS model. This model has a good handle on the timing and intensity of thunderstorm activity. Look at the 1pm model run below and compare that to 11am current conditions above. They are very similar.
Valid at 1pm this afternoon.
Look how the timing is very close. At 11am, heavy rain falls from Memphis southwest into central Louisiana. The model shows heavy rain and storms in a similar spot. Here is some good news: the model is more intense than what’s going on right now. Not saying that will stay the same, but we’ll see what happens. Fast forward to 7pm this evening with the GFS model.
Valid 7pm This Evening
Heavy rain falls in the Shoals with showers picking up in Madison, Lincoln, Morgan, and Cullman Counties. The rain is barely starting to the southeast. Here is the bottom line this evening:
Heavy rain develops in the Shoals around 2pm.
- Rain totals 1″-2″ from now through the overnight.
- Wind gusts to 40 mph at the higher elevations. *Wind Advisory In Effect*
- Wet for Trick-or-Treating from New Market, Huntsville, Decatur, Cullman to the west. Drier chances are higher to the east.
- Rain should begin after 7pm for Fort Payne, Boaz, and Winchester.
- Severe weather threat is LOW. Damaging winds and a brief, isolated tornado at best. Most if not all of us just seeing heavy rain and some wind.
Here is another look at the timing of the heaviest rain to move through.
Here are selected cities and their timing:
2pm-6pm: Florence, Tuscumbia, Zip City, Cherokee, Phil Campbell, Leighton, Lawrenceburg, Rogersville, Anderson, and Lexington.
6pm-9pm: Huntsville, Fayetteville, Meridianville, Decatur, Danville, Owens Crossroads, Tanner, and Athens.
9pm-1am: Fort Payne, Valley Head, Boaz, Stevenson, Hollywood, and Ider.
Keep checking back to www.valleywx.com for updates through the afternoon with Jason Simpson and Brandon Chambers.