Strong Front Headed this Way; Even Colder Weather Ahead?


A lot of the focus this week has been on Tropical Storm Karen in the Gulf; however, since we expect little or no direct effect on the Tennessee Valley, we will turn some attention to the northwest where a powerful storm system has produced significant severe weather and snow in the Plains:

This system is headed east, and when it gets here, you can expect a pretty good round of rain and thunderstorms. We are not expecting widespread severe weather, but the threat of a strong or severe storm is not zero. It’s something we’ll keep an eye on for you Sunday (Sunday afternoon in particular).

Expect about 0.50″ to 1.00″ of rain in most areas; however, we will range from as low as a quarter-inch to as much as two inches in isolated spots.

Behind the front, temperatures take a nose dive. We will be well below average through the first half of next week with low temperatures dropping below 50 degrees on Tuesday morning. Highs only get into the low and middle 70s.

See more about the cool down at – that’s where our detailed Seven Day Outlook is hosted.

Beyond this cool down, the GFS model is starting to lock on to some “cold” weather within the next 16 days:

GFS long-range model guidance (18Z run on Friday, October 4, 2013)

GFS long-range model guidance (18Z run on Friday, October 4, 2013)

That shows temperatures as cold as 36ยบ by October 18th! That would put us squarely in the setting of an early frost in the usual cold spots.

I’m not quite ready to guarantee that it happens, but it definitely wouldn’t be a surprise if if did get that chilly sooner rather than later.

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