Signs of Life in the Tropics

There are three areas the National Hurricane Center is watching for possible tropical cyclone development in coming days, but the one that may have the best chance in the near-term is southeast of Puerto Rico this evening. Model guidance suggests this may develop into a depression or storm moving east of the Bahamas this weekend:

It does not look like it will be any threat to the Gulf of Mexico, but looking at climatology of storm formation/track in the past, cyclones that develop in this area do have some tendency to head toward Florida or recurve east of the US East Coast. That’s what we expect from this one if it indeed does become a named storm. It makes sense that the tropics should show some signs of life over the next few weeks. We are approaching the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Next wee, we expect another strong ridge to build in over the Central and Eastern United States leaving the Tennessee Valley hot and dry with highs in the 90s (maybe some mid/upper 90s in spots). That ridge should serve to protect the northern Gulf Coast from any tropical activity; however, there is always some uncertainty in long-range forecasts. The Gulf looks a little turbulent next week with some disturbed weather off the Texas Coast. It’s worth watching, but there seems to be very little chance of any significant hurricane threat to the Gulf Coast (or even the East Coast) anytime within the next 7 to 10 days.

-Jason
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