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Jack’s

Warm & Seasonable – Stormy Next Week

Posted on: 11:35 am, April 6, 2013, by , updated on: 11:36am, April 6, 2013

It was a beautiful start to the weekend and it will persist throughout the rest of the weekend and into the work week.  Morning lows were on the chilly side, thanks to a mainly clear sky overnight, near calm wind and somewhat drier air in place. The cool spots this morning were Winchester, TN and Fort Payne, AL which dropped to a chilly 34 degrees, with temperatures in the upper 30s and low to mid 40s elsewhere.  Below is a shot of the stunning sunrise over Huntsville in case you missed it this morning, courtesy of our Saturn V Rocket Camera at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center.

sunrise

Temperatures have been warming nicely this morning, thanks to the abundant sunshine. Below are the 11:00 am temperatures. Highs today will reach the low to mid 70s with a south-southeasterly breeze.

1Currentemps

We have been monitoring the next storm system to affect the Tennessee Valley over the past several days, with no real resolution to the model discrepancies that Chief Meteorologist Jason Simpson expressed yesterday in his in-depth analysis of the storm system here: Stormy Weather Next Week.

The GFS (American-run) model still wants to accelerate the system, but the latest 12z run has slowed it’s eastward progression and doesn’t have it entering the Tennessee Valley until sometime late Wednesday/early Thursday. Below is the 12z run of the GFS valid at 6z Thursday (1:00 am Thursday morning).

gfs_op_apcp_f114_us

The European model (ECMWF) continues to show a more dynamic storm system, with a slower eastward progression, that wouldn’t reach the Tennessee Valley until Thursday afternoon. Below is the 00z run of the ECMWF model valid 18z Thursday (1:00 pm Thursday afternoon).

ecmwf_apcp_f138_us

Several days ahead of a storm system arriving, it is common to have discrepancies between models and more fluctuations are expected.  We won’t have more specific details until about 72-48 hours away from the storm system impacting the area. Due to the potency of the system and the fact that moisture will be increasing ahead of it, with temperatures near 80 degrees Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined areas of concern for severe weather for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.  The threat for Tuesday is represented by the D4 outline and Wednesday is outlined by D5. Keep in mind these outlines could change as the event gets closer.

day48prob

There is no reason to worry right now, go outside and enjoy the nice weather this weekend, just keep in mind that strong storms may be possible by the middle of next week. This weekend is the perfect time to review your severe weather safety plan with your family and to make sure you have fresh batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio.

- Jennifer Watson

Twitter: @JWatson_Wx

Facebook: Jennifer Watson WHNT