Weekend Severe Weather Potential
The uncertainty in the weekend forecast means model data keeps showing us different looks. Over the past 24 hours, we have noticed a trend toward warmer air nosing north into the Tennessee Valley late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
That is not a good thing; it could mean a threat of severe storms over Central and North Alabama between 10 PM Saturday and 10 AM Sunday. This is the latest run of the NAM computer model; CAPE over 1000 J/kg, a nearby surface low and approaching cold front will give some parts of this region a severe weather threat. The question is exactly which specific area has the greatest risk:
Wind shear present in the lower atmosphere with this kind of moisture return could bring a thunderstorm event similar or a little stronger to the storms we had last Monday. Now, the odds are not in favor of an exact repeat; rarely do the same exact spots get hit within a seven day period. This is something we will be watching intently on Friday and Saturday, so don’t tune us out this weekend. It’s a low enough risk that you shouldn’t be too worried yet, but it is high enough that we want you to pay attention so you don’t get caught off guard.
There are ways to keep in touch with us even when you’re on the go on a busy Spring weekend:
Again, this is still an uncertain situation. Even once we know for sure there will or won’t be a threat, remember that we cannot be town or even county specific with severe weather. Thunderstorms form on a small scale that cannot be accurately pinpointed more than a couple of hours in advance (at best). We are watching the larger features and factors like instability and shear to give us a look at what is possible in the area.
When the time comes, we will be as specific as possible!