Snow Possible Late Thursday – Friday Morning

Posted on: 8:03 am, March 20, 2013, by , updated on: 08:05am, March 20, 2013

Spring came in at 6:02am, but it won’t feel like it for awhile.

Let’s breakdown the potential for snow in the Tennessee Valley.

Here is the forecast map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. This is valid Thursday evening at 7pm. The pink dash line (black arrow) is the rain/snow line. Rain is likely after sunset Thursday with a change over to light snow around midnight. Light snow is possible early Friday morning with a change over to rain by late morning.

hydro thursday evening

Here is the GFS model valid for 7pm Thursday. The lighter shades of blue represent the atmosphere’s relative humidity. It’s near saturation at 70% or greater. The next map shows the temperature at 5000 feet off the ground. It’s not a set in stone freeze line, but part of the Tennessee Valley is below freezing (-2°C) at this time. It gets colder after this time frame supporting a mixed bag of precipitation including snow and sleet.

gfsx_rh_48h

gfsx_850_48h

Here is the probability of an inch of snow in the Tennessee Valley. This image is also from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

prob of snow

prob of snow2

There is a 20%-30% chance of an inch of snow on the ground for Northwest Alabama ending at 7am Friday morning.

Note: It’s still early. The temperature Thursday will likely reach the middle to upper 40s. At the same time, readings through the event will likely stay at or above freezing. Major issues on area roadways aren’t expected. Minor accumulations are possible on the grass, cars, and roof tops. Northwest Alabama has the potential for the most snow opposed to the northern Cumberland Plateau. Everything changes to rain by late morning Friday. Stay tuned for further updates.

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