Snow Still Looking Likely Friday & Saturday
The low pressure system that brought the Tennessee Valley dreary, wet conditions yesterday has pushed northeast and is centered around the Great Lakes region. Northwest flow around the low has kept cloud cover around along with cooler air. Despite waking up to a cloudy sky, the cloud deck retreated some late this morning and is currently just north of the Alabama and Tennessee state line, giving some welcome sunshine to most across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than expected at this hour across North Alabama, in the mid 50s. Elsewhere, where cloud cover has lingered longer in southern middle Tennessee, most temperatures are in the 40s.
As a disturbance rotates around the low, expect clouds to increase this evening and tonight, with continued breezy conditions. Light showers have been showing up on the radar in southern and middle Tennessee, though observations are not showing they are reaching the ground. There will be a chance for possibly a few sprinkles overnight, with maybe even a couple flurries mainly in the higher elevations of Northeast Alabama and along the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee, but no significant precipitation is in the forecast during that time frame. A few flurries may be possible Thursday, no accumulation expected.
Another chance for light rain/snow will be possible Thursday night, into Friday, with a chance for mainly light snow/flurries Saturday, maybe even lingering into Sunday. From Thursday night through Sunday, little to no accumulation is expected, with the higher elevations of Northeast Alabama and the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee having the greatest chance for a light dusting. Below is a look at the ECMWF model valid midday Saturday showing a potent upper trough digging into the eastern United States, with enough moisture for flurries/light snow.
Below is a look at the 06z run of the GFS model total snowfall accumulation through the weekend with the best chance for any accumulation of across southern middle Tennessee. The light pink is indicative of up to possibly one inch of accumulation, with the darker pink circle just north of Alabama in Tennessee is indicative of possible two inches of snow along the Cumberland Plateau (which is where the highest accumulation is possible). Though the likelihood of accumulations reaching 1/2-1 inches are low. Though it is possible for areas along the Cumberland Plateau to receive 1-2″. Grassy, elevated and metallic surfaces will have the best potential for accumulation with the ground temperature expected to be above freezing. With that said, elevated roadways/bridges will be colder and a few slick spots could develop in some areas, be cautious if you will be traveling Saturday.
This is not going to be a major winter storm, with only light accumulations at best. No major travel issues are expected. Though keep in mind with these types of systems, surprises are possible, so except changes in the forecast as the weekend gets closer.
Besides the chance for wintry precipitation, the disturbance moving through Friday, into Saturday will bring in much colder air, with highs not getting out of the 30s Saturday and most likely not getting out of the 30s Sunday as well. A moderating trend will start early next week, before more precipitation chances Tuesday.
- Jennifer Watson
Facebook: Jennifer Watson WHNT