Saturday Snow Update

Posted on: 2:58 am, February 27, 2013, by

We are getting closer to the weekend and all eyes are on Saturday morning through the afternoon for the potential for not only flurries, but accumulating snow for the Tennessee Valley. One thing we look for in meteorology when forecasting is model consistency. The GFS model is consistent from yesterday keeping a good chance of snow for all of the area this weekend. Here is the latest model run.

Panel 1 Valid For Saturday Morning.

Saturday MorningYou can see all of the Tennessee Valley is in the light shade of blue and Tennessee is in the lightest shade. This means relative humidity values are 70%-100%. Snow will likely fall in these areas at this time.

Here is Panel 2. Valid Saturday Evening at 6pm.

Saturday Evening

 

Precipitation is winding down. Most of the snow is over northeast Alabama through western North Carolina. Things start to clear as we head through the evening hours on Saturday.

Here is the precipitation accumulation map. This is valid from 6am-6pm Saturday. Note this totals are very low. North Alabama is around 0.01 of an inch of “liquid.” That would mean a trace of snow. However, I believe this is an underestimate especially with most of Tennessee seeing about 8-10 hours if not 12 hours of light snow. Even the lightest snow with temperatures slightly above freezing will accumulate on grassy surfaces. Something to monitor.

Precip Total Saturday evening

I’m showing this map for now, but I will display is again tomorrow. This is from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) showing snow accumulation ending 6am Saturday. This is right when or before the light snow truly starts in the Tennessee Valley. It will be interesting to see how far south the chance of accumulating snow gets to north Alabama. This map shows a 20%-30% chance of an inch of snow ending at 6am for Knoxville to the east.

snow forecast ending Saturday morning

 

Check back for further updates.

 

 

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