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Jack’s

Snow Looking More & More Likely Friday & Saturday

Posted on: 4:16 pm, February 26, 2013, by , updated on: 04:19pm, February 26, 2013

We’ve been talking about it over the past several days, frigid temperatures by the end of the week and the potential for wintry precipitation as well.  Models have been consistent with a potent upper level trough digging south across the eastern United States, allowing for some of the coldest air so far this season to spill into the Tennessee Valley by the weekend, with temperatures around 20 degrees or more below average.

Wednesday will feature a generally dry day, with the first chance for wintry precipitation, late Wednesday into Thursday.  Light snow/flurries are possible, maybe mixing with rain later Thursday as temperatures warm, with light snow possible again Thursday night.  The chance for precipitation is low during the this time, many could stay dry.  If and wherever wintry precipitation falls, little to no accumulation is expected, with the best chance of any light accumulation being in the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee.

A wintry mix (sleet/snow) may be possible early Friday, before transitioning to generally all snow later Friday, with the chance for snow showers persisting through Saturday as a more potent disturbances moves in. As of right now some light accumulations are possible, especially farther north into southern middle Tennessee and the higher elevations in Northeast Alabama.  Based on the latest forecast models, forecast totals at most look to reach one inch, or less. Expect this to change within the coming days as the system is still 72 hours away.  The best chance for accumulation looks to be on elevated and metallic surfaces. This is not going to be a major winter storm.

Below is a look at the GFS Model 120 hours out through Saturday night showing between 0-1″ possible, with the best chance for any accumulation being in southern middle Tennessee and the higher elevations of Northeast Alabama.  Look for changes in the forecast over the coming days.

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Despite the chance for wintry precipitation, temperatures over the weekend will be around 20 degrees below average for highs, with temperatures likely not getting out of the 30s Saturday.  Morning lows will be even colder and could possibly dip into the upper teens and low 20s Sunday morning. A moderating trend starts early next week.

Quick look at the long range forecast down the road, as mentioned by Chief Meteorologist Jason Simpson yesterday, spring lovers, don’t look for a significant warm up anytime soon. Below is a look at the NAEFS ensemble product from environment Canada Day 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Forecast showing the percentages of above or below average temperatures during the mentioned time frame.

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All the blue shades you see across much of the central and eastern part of the country is indicative of below average temperatures, with a 70-80% chance of below average temperatures for the Tennessee Valley.  When the percentages get that high, it is safe to say that no big warm up is in the forecast and below average temperatures are a good bet for the first part of March.

- Jennifer Watson

Twitter: @JWatson_Wx

Facebook: Jennifer Watson WHNT

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