Dry For Now..Rain Returns Thursday

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It’s a colder start for this morning. Temperatures took a dive overnight with readings in the upper 20s to lower 30s. It’s relatively chilly this morning but the overall weather pattern calls for temperatures at or above average over the next seven with no real arctic air in sight.

Temperatures

It’s been a wet 2013 with Huntsville and Muscle Shoals over ten inches of rain already. There is more in the forecast. A storm to the west is gaining strength and is expected to move into our area late Thursday into Friday. Right now, more of a rain event is in the forecast with a few thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has the Tennessee Valley under “general thunderstorms” with a “slight risk” from Missisippi to the west. This forecast goes through Friday morning.

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SPC

The big question for Friday: Will the atmosphere destablize enough for us to receive severe thunderstorms? That is something we’ll have to watch. Sometimes in these circumstances the atmosphere can’t recover fast enough with cold air already in place. There are other situations were the atmosphere is unstable, but it’s elevated convection and not surfaced based. Elevated convection means the atmosphere isn’t warming from the surface, but from the upper levels. You can still get thunderstorms, but in general they aren’t as severe as ones from the surface. 

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