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Jack’s

Snow or No Snow for the Weekend…..That is the Question!

Posted on: 2:23 pm, February 12, 2013, by

We’ve been talking about this for over a week now, the potential for snow Saturday as an upper trough and strong arctic front moves across the Tennessee Valley, bringing some of the coldest air we’ve seen all season. With a bone chilling arctic air mass invading the Tennessee Valley, there is no question that it will be cold enough for snow/flurries, but will there be enough moisture??  Day-to-day model runs have varied on the amount of moisture that will be available, but have not been depicting a major winter event for the Tennessee Valley, though they have hinted at the possibility of flurries/light snow as the cold air moves in.

Yesterday’s 18Z run of the GFS looked somewhat alarming, with sufficient moisture for possibly an inch or more of snow accumulation, which we all know, could make for hazardous road conditions.

18ZGFS

Overnight model runs have been trending drier, with today’s 12Z GFS run now showing no moisture, with a dry frontal passage Saturday.

12Zgfs

The interesting thing is the Canadian model (GEMS) has been unusually consistent with the track of the low, but has a track record of overdoing the moisture. On top of that, the ECMWF 12z run is hinting at a little moisture being around.  Below are the 0Z & 12Z model runs of the GEMS and the 12Z run of the ECMWF.

GEMS

ecmwf2

So the door is not completely closed on the chance for light snow accumulation Saturday. As you well know, things can change and this system is still several days away.  Expect tweaks in the forecast as we get closer to Saturday.

No matter if we see any flurries or not, it is going to get COLD!!  Temperatures Saturday are not expected to get out of the 30s, with some communities potentially not even warming above freezing.  A northerly breeze will make for wind chills in the 20s.  Saturday night, will be bitterly cold as some locations could drop into the teens. Thankfully temperatures start to moderate Sunday afternoon with highs in the 40s and then back into the 50s for Monday.

- Jennifer Watson

Twitter: @JWatson_Wx

Facebook: Jennifer Watson WHNT