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Jack’s

Thursday’s Snow Probabilities

Posted on: 3:57 pm, January 16, 2013, by , updated on: 04:33pm, January 16, 2013

A winter storm watch is in effect for portions of the Tennessee Valley through Thursday evening. Click here for more info.

A cold-core upper low will be moving across the region during the day Thursday, providing enough lift and cold-air to likely turn rain over to snow by tomorrow afternoon. As Jason Simpson has mentioned in previous posts, these features are notoriously hard to predict and will often provide surprises, especially when it relates to snow. Despite the uncertainty, we are beginning to narrow down a range of likely snowfall accumulations and who where it is most likely to fall.

Overall, we’re expecting accumulations of generally 1 to 3 inches with isolated swaths of higher amounts possible, mainly on the grassy surfaces with the higher amounts in the higher elevations. Here’s a look at your odds of getting an inch or more of snow tomorrow.

Probabilities of Getting of at least an inch of snow on Thursday.

Probabilities of Getting of at least an inch of snow on Thursday.

Notice the higher odds southeast of a line that stretches from Winchester through Huntsville through Northwest Cullman County.

Now, let’s up the threshold  to 2″, and see what your odds are of getting at least 2″ of snow tomorrow.

Probabilities of getting at least 2" of snow on Thursday.

Probabilities of getting at least 2″ of snow on Thursday.

Of course, your odds of getting at least 2″ of snow are going to be less than your odds of seeing 1″, but there is still a decent chance (30-40%) for about the eastern 1/3rd of the Valley to see over 2″ of snow tomorrow. Remember: these maps are just general ideas of where the snow will occur, isolated higher amounts will be possible, especially in the higher terrain of Jackson, DeKalb, and Marshall Counties.

Widespread travel difficulties from accumulating snow are not anticipated tomorrow, thanks to warm and saturated ground temperatures along with above freezing air temperatures. Currently, soil temperatures are well above freezing, and with saturated conditions in place, they are not expected to drop substantially by tomorrow.

10cm deep soil temps. The word "soil" highlighted to ensure this map is not confused with air temperatures.

10cm deep soil temps. The word “soil” highlighted to ensure this map is not confused with air temperatures.

Even though we are not expecting a lot of snow on the roadways, windy conditions and decent snowfall rates will likely reduce visibilities for some drivers, possibly during the afternoon commute. Also, keep an eye out for re-freezing of lingering moisture on the roads  as the sun sets Thursday night.

-Brandon
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