Rain & More Cold Weather for the Tennessee Valley – Another BIG Storm for the Northeast

Posted on: 11:45 am, November 5, 2012, by , updated on: 11:56am, November 5, 2012

A cold front moved across the Tennessee Valley over the weekend and brought scattered showers and a few heavy storms. Clouds are continuing to build into the area this morning ahead of a another storm system, with an upper-low currently moving across Missouri.  This low pressure system will continue to dive southeast and will move across the Tennessee Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours. If this type of dynamic system were moving across the area later in the Fall and Winter, with colder temperatures in place, it would likely cause for some wintry precipitation across the valley.  Temperatures with this system will not be cold enough to produce any wintry precipitation as it passes overhead, but just a cold rain, as temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s at the surface when the precipitation falls. Showers are expected to start moving into northwest Alabama this afternoon and slowly progress eastward overnight and into Tuesday morning. As the low pressure system gradually shifts east, rain will come to an end from west to east, with most likely only a few light patches of rain left Tuesday afternoon. Behind this system another reinforcing shot of colder air will move into the Tennessee Valley. Below is a look at the 11:00 am satellite, radar and temperatures, with the low pressure center indicated by the red letter “L”.

This storm system will not bring much trouble to the Tennessee Valley, but could cause more potential flooding, damage and power outages as it tracks towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as they are finally beginning to get back on their feet after last weeks’ historic storm Sandy swept through. Computer models have been persistent with low pressure developing southeast of the Tennessee Valley and then tracking up the East Coast. Unlike Sandy, which was a tropical system that become extratropical just before landfall as it absorbed into a deep trough moving across the eastern United States, this system is not tropical and will be classified as a Nor’easter. This particular storm will not have the massive wind field like Sandy did, but will still have impacts on travel and could cause potential flooding from the already saturated ground that Sandy just moved over last week. The Nor’easter will cause high wind along the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, possible storm surge up to five feet from Delmarva, NJ up through Long Island, along with heavy snow for interior New England. Below is the 0z model run of the European model 78 hours out, showing the Nor’easter just off the Northeast coast Wednesday night.

The active weather pattern will continue into mid-November as another storm system will move into the Pacific Northwest late this week and strengthen as it moves over the Rockies and heads our way by early next week (Monday/Tuesday). It looks like as of right now, this could be a setup for showers and possible strong storms. It is too far out to nail down specific details on this system in regards to timing and storm strength, but there will at least be rain during the early part of next week and more colder air moving in behind it.  We will keep you posted as more model runs come in and the timing of the cold front becomes more consistent. Below is a look at the European model showing the upper trough moving into the eastern United States, with rain moving across the Tennessee Valley Monday night.

- Jennifer Watson

Twitter: @JWatson_Wx

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