Cool Weather, Rain Ahead

Posted on: 7:31 pm, November 4, 2012, by

Sunday saw a dramatic temperature drop from Saturday thanks to a cold-front that has now pushed into the Southern Gulf Coast states. This cooler airmass will be reinforced over the next 24 hours as another, more powerful upper-level system develops across the region. The brunt of this system will be felt to our south and east, but we will likely see widespread showers tomorrow evening into Tuesday morning.

A forecast of what the surface map might look like Monday evening. A surface low pressure is expected to develop to our south. This will keep heavier thunderstorms south of the TN Valley, but we will likely still see showers Monday night thru Tuesday morning.

The best chances for rain should arrive in in eastern areas early Monday evening and then gradually spread northeast across the rest of the Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning. Most of the shower activity should be light, and rainfall totals by Tuesday morning should generally tally up to less than a quarter inch for most communities.

A probability forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Probability of rain totals exceeding .25″ during the period from 7AM Monday through 7AM Tuesday.

In the image above, the areas in the yellow shading have the highest chance of getting more than a quarter inch of rain through Tuesday morning, but even if you are in these areas its still only a 1 in 4 chance you’ll get more than a quarter inch. Bottom line: rain amounts should be pretty low in Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee.

Most of Tuesday should be cool and dry. Temperatures will rebound during the second half of the workweek as this storm systems moves further from the region.

-Brandon
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