Possible Changes to SPC Severe Weather Outlooks
As you may know, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) provides outlooks in advance of potential severe weather events. These outlooks specify threat levels that, for many years, have been divided into three categories, “SLIGHT”, “MODERATE”, and “HIGH” risks. These risk categories are used to symbolize the coverage and intensity of severe weather. The risk level is dependent on the probability associated with the severe threat. If there is a chance of isolated severe weather but the probability is too low to meet the “SLIGHT RISK” category, the SPC labels that area with a “SEE TEXT” note on the graphic. Read more about what these categories mean here.
It was learned at the National Weather Association Annual Meeting last week in Madison, Wisconsin that the SPC is considering making changes to the outlook terms in 2013.
The first change is that “MARGINAL” will replace “SEE TEXT” for situations where organized severe weather is not likely enough to reach the “SLIGHT” category.
The next category would be “SLIGHT”. The new “SLIGHT” risk would equate to what would currently be a low-end slight risk.
The next change is that the upper end of the current slight risk category would be named “ENHANCED”.
“MODERATE” and “HIGH” risks would remain the same.
https://twitter.com/MartinMMC posted an image from the NWA conference showing the proposed changes: