Showers This Morning, Storms Possible Later

It has been a soggy start to the work week.  The rain overnight has lightened up some and become more patchy, with the heaviest rain this morning is currently east of I-65.

Temperatures are on the mild side this morning, and are mostly in the 60s.

The strong surface low still in east/central Mississippi is starting to move into western Alabama and will continue its slow track northeastward towards north Alabama during the morning and afternoon.  A warm front associated with the low pressure is still south of the Tennessee River, but as the system moves northeast, the warm front will gradually lift north of the area, putting the Tennessee Valley in a warmer and more moist environment. Counter clockwise flow around the low pressure is streaming abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture northward, which will help fuel more showers and storms throughout the day. Below is a look at a the Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis showing surface winds and lines of constant pressure showing the surface low, which is indicated by the 1000 mb circle.

The Storm Prediction Center still has almost the entire state of Alabama in a Slight Risk for severe storms today, which extends northward into portions of southern middle Tennessee and east into western/central Georgia .  The severe threat is conditional and will be highly dependent on how much sunshine we get to warm our air mass and increase instability.

The highest risk for severe storms will be farther east, mainly east of I-65. Due to the slow movement of the system, it looks like the main time frame for any strong storms will be during the afternoon and early evening. The main risk is strong wind gusts, though due to the nature of the system, there is the potential for individual cells to possibly rotate, which could trigger a few tornado warnings if the rotation within a storm was strong enough.  The risk for any tornadoes is low, the main concern will continue to be strong wind gusts and heavy rain. Many areas south of the Tennessee River have already received over an inch of rain, with another 1-2″ possible before this system pulls away and we dry out.

Make sure you have a way to get the latest weather information throughout the day.  There are a number of ways for you to stay informed and get warning information. WHNT offers a free app called Live Alert 19 that will alert you when we are going live on television. A NOAA Weather Radio is always a great tool to have, but there are some mobile applications that will accomplish the same thing for you: MyWarn and iMap Weather Radio. You have to pay for them, but they are worth the money.

- Jennifer Watson

Twitter: @JWatson_Wx

Facebook: Jennifer Watson WHNT