A Wet Next Couple Of Days

Posted on: 8:45 am, September 30, 2012, by Jennifer Watson, updated on: 09:58am, September 30, 2012

We woke up to another cloudy morning across the Tennessee Valley, though temperatures were several degrees cooler compared to yesterday morning, thanks to a slightly drier air mass that moved in overnight. Morning lows ranged in the mid to upper 50s. Dewpoints were in the low to mid 50s, giving a more refreshing, crisp feel to the air. A light jacket may be needed during the next couple of hours if you will be out and about this morning. Below is a look at 8:00 am temperatures, which have warmed a few degrees since morning lows.

Showers are starting to creep closer to the Tennessee Valley and will continue to do so throughout the day. Already there are some light showers moving into southern Winston and Marion counties. Below is a look at regional satellite and radar, with the heaviest rain still off to our southwest in Louisiana and Arkansas.

Showers will increase from southwest to northeast over the region through the afternoon and evening hours. The best chance for rain during the early to mid afternoon hours will be west of I-65, especially in northwest Alabama. Showers will increase in coverage this evening and overnight, with likely a wet Monday morning commute for many. You will want to keep the rain gear handy over the next couple of days as waves of showers and possible isolated storms will be passing over the area. A stronger storm cannot be ruled out Monday, with the main threat being strong wind gusts, but the primary concern over the next couple of days will be heavy rain and potential flooding problems. Below is a look at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Day 1-3 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, rainfall totals could get as high as one to maybe even three inches or more.

The culprit of the rain over the next few days is a low pressure system located to our southwest, with a surface low currently moving from extreme southeastern Texas, into western Louisiana. The counter clockwise flow around the area of low pressure will increase Gulf of Mexico moisture across the region & the potential for showers and heavy rain. Below is a map from the Storm Prediction Center’s Mesoscale Analysis page showing surface wind and lines of constant pressure (isobars). You can see where the 1004 millibar circle is in extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana, which shows the surface low.