Partly Cloudy With Isolated Showers Possible

It was a mild start to the day, with morning lows ranging around five to ten degree warmer than yesterday morning, thanks to clouds that built in overnight.  Morning lows were near or slightly above seasonal averages, in the 60s.  Clouds have thinned some with the few hours of daylight we have had so far, but don’t expect them to completely go away.  Clouds will continue to stream in from the west throughout the day, so expect a partly cloudy sky to prevail. Below is look at 10:0 am of downtown Huntsville from our rooftop camera.

As we progress throughout the next 24 to 48 hours an upper disturbance to our west in the southern Plains and a cold front and associated trough to our north currently just digging into the upper Midwest will be our weather makers.  Below is an image of the 500 mb Rapid Precision Mesoscale (RPM) forecast model at 7:00 pm this evening, showing the approaching upper low to our west in the red circle in Texas and the yellow arrow pointing to the trough, where also the surface cold front is in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

As the upper low approaches, it will increase the chance for spotty, light showers later today, becoming more numerous overnight and into Monday.  Periods of rain will continue through Tuesday as the cold front approaches and moves through the area.  Moisture will continue to increase ahead of the two systems, therefore heavy rain is possible.  The rain will be beneficial as Muscle Shoals currently has a year-to-date rainfall deficit of 8.0″ and Huntsville has a deficit of 3.22″. Though if it rains too hard too fast, minor flooding could be a concern. There is the potential for a few strong storms, with the main threat being gusty wind. Rainfall totals could reach higher than 4.0″ in isolated locations. Below is the Day 1-3 Rainfall totals from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

As the cold front moves east Tuesday, clearing will occur as a much cooler and drier air mass builds in.  Expect to wake up to mornings lows in the mid to upper 40s Wednesday morning, with highs Wednesday afternoon only near 70 degrees.  Morning lows will likely be again in the upper 40s Thursday and then warm into the mid 70s by Thursday afternoon. Enjoy another taste of Fall before it officially begins Saturday!

- Jennifer Watson

Twitter: @JWatson_Wx

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