Evening Update

Posted on: 6:54 pm, September 2, 2012, by Jason Simpson

We’ve just come off the live coverage on WHNT-TV, and so far, we have no significant reports of damage here in the Tennessee Valley. We have had numerous tornado warnings this afternoon, and while we cannot rule out a few more, the situation will improve through the evening as temperatures fall and the daytime heat source starts to fade away.

There is still a threat of some severe storms. Here’s what the Storm Prediction Center has to say about the status of the Tornado Watch that is in effect until 10 PM:

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 608 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY…AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A TORNADO
OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS TOR WATCH 608. MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA /ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND
NRN AL/.

DISCUSSION…EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AL HAS GROWN UPSCALE INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
MOST OF THE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE S OF THE WATCH AREA AND INTO
ADDITIONAL WATCHES DURING THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE TN AMIDST MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
/EVIDENCED BY SLY WINDS AT KTHA AND WLY WINDS AT KMQY/. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
SFC WINDS ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN REMAIN SLY. AS A
RESULT…LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
CELLS TO EXHIBIT TRANSIENT ROTATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER…THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND REDUCE OVERALL THE SEVERE
THREAT. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND BRIEF ORGANIZATION ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD
POOLS.

FARTHER N /CNTRL KY/…THE THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
AS VEERING WINDS REDUCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING REDUCES INSTABILITY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT…A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
/PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAIN RATES
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME CELL TRAINING IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.