Isaac Update – 4PM
The latest data coming in from reconnaissance aircraft are indicating little change in strength in Isaac, despite a bit more organized look on satellite. The center of the storm is now moving away from Key West, Florida and is entering the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
The official track from the National Hurricane Center still has landfall sometime early Wednesday as a category 2 hurricane (winds 96 to 110mph) somewhere west of Mobile. Remember, this is still a very uncertain situation. Don’t focus on the actual forecast track, but more on the cone of uncertainty surrounding it. Any location within this cone is a plausible landfall location.
Another thing to remember is this is a large diameter storm, so the effects of Isaac in the form of rain bands, increased winds, and rip currents may be felt as early as late Monday night.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast. This include Pensacola, Mobile, and New Orleans.
After landfall, the track remains uncertain. Many models have a more northwesterly turn (toward the Plains) than the Hurricane Center’s forecast. This scenario would mitigate the direct impacts on the Tennessee Valley. But if the storm moves north as indicated below, we would see rainy and windy conditions late week.
You can also track Isaac yourself with our Interactive Hurricane Tracker.