Some Forecast Notes for the Weekend

The Storm Prediction Center has dropped the *SLIGHT* Risk for severe weather through the evening hours. A cold front north of us will still have the ability to produce some scattered showers for the rest of the day, but there is no real risk of heavy rain or strong storms for the rest of the day (including tonight and the weekend as well)!

That large complex of storms last night produced a lot of rain-cooled air, and the cooler weather along with a lack of good sunshine thanks to a persistent cloud deck for the first half of the day has prevented the development of big afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the front:

This front will slowly push through the Tennessee Valley tonight and end up stalling south of us near I-20 on Saturday. That means some scattered showers are possible generally south of US 278 on Saturday afternoon and evening. North of the Tennessee River, that chance of rain is almost zero thanks to a lot more dry air influencing the weather!

Surface Map Forecast for 1 PM Saturday:

The forecast through Sunday and Monday is one that will likely need some “adjusting” over the weekend. Weak storm systems are very difficult to resolve more than 24 hours in advance, but a “weak” system this time of year can bring a profound difference in the weather. If you have outdoor plans on Sunday and Monday (especially with a lot of students going back to school), be sure you check in here and with Meteorologists Jennifer Watson on WHNT News 19 Saturday and Sunday mornings and Brandon Chambers on WHNT News 19′s evening newscasts over the weekend! They will be monitoring the changes in the timing of potential rainy weather in the Sunday-Monday period.

Right now, it looks like we will have a period of rain between Sunday night and Monday morning; here’s the simulated radar image (forecast) from the NAM forecast model for 7 AM Monday:

There is also potential late in the week for some tropical influence near the Gulf Coast (mainly in Texas & Louisiana), but that could have some impact on the longer-range forecast as well. Any increase in rainfall from that would occur toward the Friday/Saturday time frame.

-Jason
Connect with me!
Google+: Jason Simpson
Facebook: Jason Simpson’s Fan Page
Twitter: @simpsonwhnt