Tropical Storm Debby Has Arrived
Earlier this afternoon, hurricane hunter aircraft detected a closed circulation with the disturbance we’ve been watching in the Gulf of Mexico for the past few days, and the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on the 4th named tropical system of the 2012 season. We are now tracking Tropical Storm Debby.
Model guidance is still in disagreement as to where Debby will head, with some taking her east toward Florida and others taking her west toward the Texas coastline.
The Hurricane Center is opting for the westward scenario. Here is their official track, taking Debby just offshore by Thursday afternoon:
The bottom line is, there is much uncertainty as to where along the Gulf Coast Debby will land. It is unlikely that this will become a major tropical system with significant impacts onshore.
As for beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, increased surf, elevated riptide threats, and thunderstorms are all that is expected. The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued this graphicast if you are heading south over the next few days.
The good news? Debby should be long gone by the 4th of July.