Calm for a Short Time; More Storms Later

Last night’s thunderstorms came roaring through the Tennessee Valley knocking trees down and cutting electricity to thousands around Alabama and Tennessee. The weather will be much calmer in North Alabama and Middle Tennessee for a while this morning through the afternoon, but more storms are possible later tonight. Over the last 24 hours through 8:40 AM, some parts of Limestone, Giles, Lawrence (TN), and Wayne Counties had more than 3 to 5 inches of rain.

Some rain totals from around the Valley through 7 AM:

Scottsboro: 1.36″
Russellville: 1.20″
Valley Head: 1.18″
Cullman: 1.15″
UAHuntsville: 1.09″
Guntersville: 1.01″
Huntsville International: 0.73″
Muscle Shoals: 0.68″
Decatur: 0.59″
Courtland: 0.43″

Heavier thunderstorms are still ongoing in parts of West Tennessee near Memphis, North Mississippi, Central Alabama, and West Georgia. These are moving southeast, and will not likely impact any counties in the WHNT News 19 viewing area through the early part of the afternoon. There is a small chance that a couple of isolated storms could impact Franklin, Marion, Winston, Lawrence and Cullman Counties late this afternoon, but most of us are in rain-cooled, more stable air for the majority of the day:

Surface-based CAPE (instability). Note the minimum of CAPE in the Tenn. Valley right now; that means we are stable and storms are not likely until the atmosphere recovers later this evening/overnight.

For most of the day, expect a partly cloudy sky with temperatures in the mid-80s. Late in the evening, new storms will develop near a slow-moving, very weak cool front in Middle Tennessee and Northwest Alabama. Those storms will come through the Tennessee Valley later tonight between 9 PM and 3 AM with lightning, gusty winds, heavy downpours and some hail.

There is a SLIGHT RISK of severe storms later tonight through the wee hours of Tuesday morning; the threat of widespread, destructive wind or tornadoes is extremely low. The late-night storms could be noisy with frequent lightning and booming thunder.

Forecast surface features for 1 AM Tuesday; the front over the Tenn. Valley will be like a train track for thunderstorms to follow through the early part of Tuesday morning.

As a reminder, we cannot pinpoint severe weather hours in advance. Severe storms are like bubbles in a boiling pot; you know the area where those bubbles will develop (inside the pot), but you cannot know with certainty the exact square millimeter where a single bubble will form. We look at a threat of storms over a broad area hours in advance, and we narrow it down to counties and towns once those “bubbles” start developing and moving. That happens on a time scale of minutes to an hour. So, could it get rough again tonight in a few spots? Sure, but we have to track it storm by storm to be point specific. Stay alert with NOAA weather radio and the multiple offerings from WHNT News 19′s web and mobile platforms:

WHNT.com’s Maps & Radar Page
Mobile Applications
Baron Saf-T-Net

We will keep fresh information here and across our social media platforms throughout the day and night; anytime you have a question, feel free to ask!

-Jason
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