Update on the Weekend Rain Chances

Posted on: 3:21 pm, April 18, 2012, by

weather where you live

One of the reasons we decided to do a weather blog was to give you a look at the forecast in more detail. Yesterday, I posted some thoughts on the weekend forecast that were subject to change, and after looking at 24 hours worth of new data, there is definitely some change coming. It’s good for most of us, but there are still some “iffy” items on the agenda.

First of all, here’s the latest GFS 24-hour total rainfall plot at Noon on Sunday (12 PM Saturday to 12 PM Sunday). It looks much different that it did just yesterday! Most of our model guidance has backed off of heavy rain potential; now, the suggestion is that while we may have some rain, the risk of a wash-out is low for the weekend in North Alabama and most of Tennessee.

GFS Model Output for 12 PM Sunday showing 24-hour Accumulated Precipitation and Surface Pressure

If this pans out the way the data is trending, Saturday may not be that bad after-all. Expect some rain at times mainly from the Tennessee River south through Central Alabama. The likelihood of widespread heavy rain and storms is low around here. Over-all, rainfall amounts should average around 1/2 to 1 inch near and south of I-59 from Tuscaloosa to Fort Payne. Around Huntsville, Decatur and Athens, up to 1/4 inch of rain is possible, and in The Shoals as well as much of Southern Middle Tennessee, even lower amounts are likely as most of the action will stay south of the Tennessee River.

Our best shot at rain still looks to be in the evening hours on Saturday into early Sunday morning, but a few stray showers are certainly possible throughout the day with a gusty east-northeast wind around 10-20 miles per hour.

So, for outdoor events like the Bloomin’ Festival in Cullman, Hands on Trucks at Sci-Quest in Huntsville, and the many Relay for Life events around the Valley, expect some occasional light to moderate rain mainly in Saturday afternoon and evening. An all-day, heavy rain is unlikely, but there will still likely be some forecast adjustments over the next day and a half. Don’t cancel your plans just yet!

-Jason
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