WHNT Weather Discussion
…is what Chief Meteorologist Dan Satterfield decided to do in regards to anthropogenic global warming. Who supports it and who doesn’t? Dan researched it well and has some interesting facts…check out the video that aired last night on channel 19 at 10pm. It’s very informative and even entertaining! (Sorry for the audio…it lags a little. You can see it at whnt.com as well. Click on weather and scroll down to flash videos…it’s titled climate).
and cooler weather is on the way, in fact, one of the computer forecast models shows the morning lows dipping into the 40’s by next Thursday. The model shows that air temperatures at 5,000 feet will be somewhere around 28 degrees, this equates to a surface temperature in the middle 40’s. While this may sound a little brisk, it is actually very seasonal for this area.
On a different note, the weather for Big Spring Jam looks better than it has in a couple years. At this point, there are chances of showers, but the chances of severe weather are very low. This means that the Jam should be able to go on as planned.
As of late Wednesday night, the National Hurricane Center has put up a Hurricane Watch for almost all of the Texas coast. It seems certain that a Cat 3, or even a cat 4 hurricane will hit somewhere along the coast late Friday into Saturday morning.
There has been a bit more of a spread in forecast tracks between the models today, but I would still bet on landfall between Corpus Christi, and Galveston.
A cat 4 will be considerably more destructive than a Cat 3 so let’s hope it does not reach that level. A late recon dropsonde tonight shows the pressure dropping to 942 mb in the eye of Ike, so that is not good news.
The Weather Underground site has an easily obtainable plot of the different models. You can see what I mean by the increased spread. Keep in mind, that some models are more reliable than others. Numerical weather prediction is called guidance for a reason!
Later,
Dan
The plots for Hanna continue to move more towards the east as the storm moves over the Bahamas. Even as the islands deal with Hanna, the models for Hurricane Ike continue to show it moving towards the Bahamas before it begins a turn towards the north. This means yet another storm for the islands. Josephine continues to spin harmlessly in the Atlantic, and it is still too early to tell where it may be headed.
The peak of hurricane season is here, and to emphasize it’s coming: three named storms in the Atlantic. Hanna, the oldest of the three, is heading towards the Bahamas. Ike, the middle storm, is moving towards the Bahamas and Cuba from the center of the Atlantic. The last of the three, Josephine, is furthest from the US, heading west-northwest from near the Cape Verde Islands. As these storms move closer to the US, we will better know where the landfalls will be, currently Hanna looks to be moving towards the east coast of Florida and the Carolinas, but at this point it is still anyone’s guess. As far as the other storms, it is still too early to tell where they will make landfall or if they will simply stay out at sea.
Hurricane Gustav is now making landfall as a strong category 2 storm with sustained winds at 110 mph near the eye. Thankfully, it never strengthen into a major cat 4 or 5 storm. Also, it’s been interesting to hear some of the national media talk about this storm over the weekend and even today. This is not catastrophic or even unusual for a major category 2 or 3 hurricane to affect the U.S. It’s important to get information to the public, but the hype has been over the top. This storm is very different from Katrina. It is taking a different path, has lower top winds and is not as large. It is good that people evacuated and it will certainly do some damage from wind and flooding. But again, this is not the “storm of the century” as some of the media have coined it.
Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center on Gustav…it’s about to make landfall as a category two hurricane.
WTNT32 KNHC 011301
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008
…GUSTAV WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE…EYEWALL MOVING ONTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM CDT…1300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES…
125 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 130
MILES…210 KM…SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES…35 KM…SOUTHWEST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH…175 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL…WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES…370 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION IN SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH…104 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB…28.26 INCHES.
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI…ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.
REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION…28.9 N…90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
As Gustav continues to move through the Caribbean and towards the Gulf of Mexico, almost all of the models point to landfall in the US. The models and National Hurricane Center are currently showing the storm heading towards Louisiana, but as with any weather system it is still too early to tell where it will end up. There are many variables involved including an area of high pressure that could dramatically affect the path of the storm as it nears the continental US.
There is still some degree of uncertainty about where the storm will hit, and states along the Gulf Coast are preparing just in case the storm heads their way.
As Gustav continues to slowly move through the Caribbean, Cuba braces for its encounter with the storm. The majority of the models show the storm going to the south of Cuba, and possibly making a glancing hit to the western end of the island. Once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, there will be a better idea of where the storm will make landfall in the US. As the image below shows, the majority of models agree that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico, however there is little agreement at this point as to where in the US it will strike.
Gustav Track
You can be sure that in the coming days, there will be many more updates on TS Gustav as the storm continues to move ever closer to the US.
A tornado watch is in effect until 9 pm for most of central Alabama. At this point, it does not include any counties in the Tennessee Valley, but a few strong storms could pop up in Franklin, Colbert or even Cullman and Lawrence counties in Alabama in the next few hours. The most unstable air and shear is to our south and west. Take a look at the radar from the Birmingham nexrad below. It outlines the tornado watch in red and shows the isolated severe storms over central Alabama.
You can also check out our sister station Fox 6 and our friend and former channel 19 meteorologist James-Paul Dice doing severe weather coverage from Birmingham. Here’s a link to their live-stream on the internet.
(Click image for larger view)
Looks like our forecast for the last few days is still good if Fay takes the track above. The models are still trying to turn the remnants of Fay northeast into the Tennessee Valley by the middle of next week. I have a feeling that may happen. Which means our heaviest rain would come between Tuesday and Thursday of next week. Between now and then, we will see a mix of sun and clouds with some scattered showers by Sunday and Monday.
For the weekend, don’t cancel your outdoor plans here. Just be ready for a band of occasional showers, otherwise just a lot of clouds and plenty of muggy air. If you have plans further south, get ready for a lot of rain and flooding, especially along the coast.
Have a great weekend…
Spencer
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